The next matches of this quarter finals feature one of the most historical and prestigious ties, while the other game consists of a team trying to obtain home advantage in the final, and the first winner in the champions league era.
MARSEILLE VS BAYERN MUNICH:
The home team go into this match in 9th in Ligue 1, scoring 36 times and conceding 30, losing 9 and drawing 10. To say that their form this season has been poor is an understatement. Didier Deschamps saving grace is the champions league this season, after knocking out an aging Inter Milan squad in the previous round, their work against Bayern seems an insurmountable task. Goals have been hard to come by for the south of France outfit, and they struggled to score against Inter in the first leg of the last round, Bayern will provide a stiffer test for Marseille, and that could be ominous with Steve Mananda missing through suspension. Valbuena has 11 assists in Ligue 1 any chance creation will have to come through him and Marseille must be lethal when the opportunity presents itself.
As for Bayern, Ribery returns to the club he left 5 years ago, so he will need no extra motivation to add to his exceptional form in helping Bayern score 20 goals in three games. Mario Gomez is two goals away form Lionel Messi in the goalscoring list and will look to add more against an out of form Marseille. With the final being hosted in Munich, Bayern will be extremely focused on getting there, which means zero room for mishaps ala Basel in the first leg.
Expect Bayern to make a statement of intent at Velodrome, this tie could be over after 90 mins, unless Marseille put in a superhuman performance.
AC MILAN VS BARCELONA:
The biggest draw of the round and also a rematch of the group stages, except now with a semi final at stake. This game has a lot of sub plots such as Zlatan vs Messi, Zlatan vs Guardiola etc. This game comes for Milan at the right time in terms of form but it also comes at the wrong time when considering injuries and suspensions. The Rossoneri are without Thiago Silva (injured), Van Bommel (suspended), Abate (suspended) adding to the long term woes of Pato (though it must be stated that they have coped well without the injury-prone forward). I see this game as very similar to the 2-3 match in the group stages, not necessarily the scoreline, but in terms of attacking.
Milan are not set up to defend deep against opposition like Barcelona, which means that they will have to attack and use the aggressiveness of Kevin Boateng and the ability of Nocerino in scoring vital goals when needed. Ibrahimovic is in the form of his life at the moment, and will be unplayable when defending set pieces, he's also extremely clever in dropping deep and playing like a No 10 in creating chances for others like he did in the first leg against Arsenal in the San Siro. It should also be noted that Milan are more capable now than in previous seasons to press and deny Barcelona time on the ball, now that their midfield is younger and more competitive after some shrewd signings, like Emanuelson for example. The only concern they will have will be the centre of defence, with Thiago Silva missing to compliment Nesta, it means Mexes will probably start ( and keep odds on him getting sent off) with Bonera, Nesta if fully fit will be preferred by Allegri.
Barcelona we know how they will play, they will not disperse from their philosophy, what may change are the tactical variances for this match. With the situation of Abidal and Adriano being injured it means that Puyol will probably start at left back, with Mascherano and Pique as centre backs and Alves as right back. It will be interesting to see if Guardiola will deploy a 3-4-3 formation or 4-3-3. Now i know some Barca fans are not enthusiastic about 3-4-3 because it leaves you open to counterattacks as proved by Valencia earlier in the season, but i like that formation because it gives you more possession in the midfield. That possession creates more goal scoring opportunities and its also the best form of protecting your back three (which can be made into four, with Busquets dropping back), due to your superiority in ball control and numbers in the middle. Bear in mind that Messi often drops deep to interchange with Fabregas (hence his goal display this season since coming from Arsenal)combined with the direct play of Alexis Sanchez who stretches defenses, you have a team that will eventually tire out Milan.
The weak point in any formation whether a 3-4-3 or 4-3-3 (which i believe Pep will use for this game) is Mascherano in a possible duel with Ibrahimovic, without Puyol's quickness and sense of urgency i fear for Mascherano, coupled with Pique's inconsistent form that is an area Milan will look to exploit.
It's an evenly balanced game and should be intriguing, i think Barca win it 3-2 if its an all out attacking match.
Full review of quarter finals next week after second legs decided,
Bossman.
No comments:
Post a Comment