So the quarter final and semi final draws were made this week, and things are a lot clearer on what the final on May 19th could look like. The draw as follows:
APOEL VS REAL MADRID
The proverbial and over used "David vs Goliath" its safe to say David will not be winning this tie. Apoel's stunning feat of knocking out Lyon will not be repeated. The problem with this fixture is that Apoel have played all their cards in the match vs Lyon and now the onus in the first leg will be to attack and get something out of Real Madrid, or the opposite might be to sit back and absorb enormous amounts of pressure, either way i fail to see Real not scoring a couple of goals to put this tie to bed. The real test for Madrid will come in the semi's with a potential meeting with Bayern.
PREDICTION: No need for one, its blatantly obvious.
BENFICA VS CHELSEA
This match is more evenly balanced than people might think. Benfica topped the group, with albeit a poor Manchester United, even so they have quality in players like Cardozo, Gaitan, Aimar and Nolito. They will prove a match for Chelsea, even though they heroically overcame Napoli, they still looked slow in midfield and struggled to maintain possession, a flaw that will haunt them maybe not so much against Benfica but possibly against a hypothetical meeting with Barcelona in the semis. With that said they created chances and they took them clinically and Drogba showed his Mourinho-era form by being unplayable and unsporting. What may tip this tie in Chelsea's favor is the siege mentality they have at the moment. The fall out of the Villas-Boas sacking and players accused of having too much power in the dressing room, to comments of certain players being "past it" has galvanised the squad. Some players such Lampard, Drogba, Terry, Ashley Cole etc realize that this may be their last chance to win the trophy with the big ears once and for all after coming desperately close in the past.
PREDICTION: CHELSEA (Not by much)
MARSEILLE VS BAYERN MUNICH
Late goal specialists Marseille against Inter Milan and Dortmund will need to play out of their skins to oust Bayern in this draw. I must admit i dont know as much as i should about Marseille in the Champions league this season although their first leg match vs Inter Milan was painful to watch. Interesting subplot is that Ribery returns home and i really like the look of Valbuena, and Andre Ayew. The absence of Steve Mananda could prove detrimental if Bayern reproduce their goal killing form that they did against Basel. Bayern have every incentive this season to reach the final and with the current form of Robben, Ribery and Gomez they will be too much of Marseille. That should lead to a historic prestigious tie vs Real Madrid in the semis.
PREDICTION: BAYERN
MILAN VS BARCELONA
The game of the round of eight, already met in the group stages in two entertaining games, this should be equally if not better than the previous meeting. Milan were astonishing when dismantling Arsenal in the first leg and were pathetic in almost blowing a 4-0 advantage in the second leg. Manager Allegri is an astute tactician (i don't think he gets enough credit) he would learned a great deal about Barcelona in the group stage meetings.
The question when playing Barca is whether to attack or sit deep and defend. The best way to play Barca is to attack pressure high up the pitch (especially Pique) and try and create one-on-ones with Ibrahimovic, Robinho, and Boateng. Milan would know automatically that they would not see the ball as much as they would like, but attack is the best form of defence. Sitting back against Barca would prove suicidal as they would eventually pick you off. As for Barcelona, the chance to be the first back to back winners in the champions league era means that they will have to go the hard way in the route to Munich. With the inconsistent form of Pique this season it will be interesting to see if Guardiola deploys a 3-4-3 as he has this season or the standard 4-3-3. To render the threat of Ibrahimovic and co useless, 3-4-3 means that he will have even greater amount of possession in midfield and that will equate to more chances on goal. The form of Pedro will be worrying, although he can rely on Sanchez who has given Barca something extra this season, he is more direct and has a similar impact that Guily had in the Rijkaard days. I am not going to speak on Messi, you already know he's not human.
PREDICTION: BARCELONA
Other notes:
Athletic Club impressive over two legs vs Manchester United then again not surprising if you know how Bielsa' teams play, i.e Chile in the last WC. Proves that La Liga is not as weak as people claim. However i wonder how long they can keep on to players like Llorente, Munian, Susaeta and Herrera.
EL Clasico UCL final is very possible, don't know if i can handle another high pressure nerve racking match with Real Madrid, last year's four clasico's in April was heart attack inducing.
Euro's are getting closer, just wanted to say that.
On a somber note, strength for Abidal and Muamba, football is more than the club you support.
Till next week.
Bossman.
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