Champions league Preview pt 2

      The next matches of this quarter finals feature one of the most historical and prestigious ties, while the other  game consists of a team trying to obtain home advantage in the final, and the first winner in the champions league era.

MARSEILLE VS BAYERN MUNICH:

          The home team go into this match in 9th in Ligue 1, scoring 36 times and conceding 30, losing 9 and drawing 10. To say that their form this season has been poor is an understatement. Didier Deschamps saving grace is the champions league this season, after knocking out an aging Inter Milan squad in the previous round, their work against Bayern seems an insurmountable task. Goals have been hard to come by for the south of France outfit, and they struggled to score against Inter in the first leg of the last round,  Bayern will provide a stiffer test for Marseille, and that could be ominous with Steve Mananda missing through suspension. Valbuena has 11 assists in Ligue 1 any chance creation will have to come through him and Marseille must be lethal when the opportunity presents itself.
         As for Bayern, Ribery returns to the club he left 5 years ago, so he will need no extra motivation to add to his exceptional form in helping Bayern score 20 goals in three games. Mario Gomez is two goals away form Lionel Messi in the goalscoring list and will look to add more against an out of form Marseille. With the final being hosted in Munich, Bayern will be extremely focused on getting there, which means zero room for mishaps ala Basel in the first leg.
          Expect Bayern to make a statement of intent at Velodrome, this tie could be over after 90 mins, unless Marseille put in a superhuman performance.


AC MILAN VS BARCELONA:

      The biggest draw of the round and also a rematch of the group stages, except now with a semi final at stake. This game has a lot of sub plots such as Zlatan vs Messi, Zlatan vs Guardiola etc. This game comes for Milan at the right time in terms of form but it also comes at the wrong time when considering injuries and suspensions. The Rossoneri are without Thiago Silva (injured), Van Bommel (suspended), Abate (suspended) adding to the long term woes of Pato (though it must be stated that they have coped well without the injury-prone forward). I see this game as very similar to the 2-3 match in the group stages, not necessarily the scoreline, but in terms of attacking.
         Milan are not set up to defend deep against opposition like Barcelona, which means that they will have to attack and use the aggressiveness of Kevin Boateng and the ability of Nocerino in scoring vital goals when needed. Ibrahimovic is in the form of his life at the moment, and will be unplayable when defending set pieces, he's also extremely clever in dropping deep and playing like a No 10 in creating chances for others like he did in the first leg against Arsenal in the San Siro.  It should also be noted that Milan are more capable now than in previous seasons to press and deny Barcelona time on the ball, now that their midfield is younger and more competitive after some shrewd signings, like Emanuelson for example. The only concern they will have will be the centre of defence, with Thiago Silva missing to compliment Nesta, it means Mexes will probably start ( and keep odds on him getting sent off) with Bonera, Nesta if fully fit will be preferred by Allegri.
        Barcelona we know how they will play, they will not disperse from their philosophy, what may change are the tactical variances for this match. With the situation of Abidal and Adriano being injured it means that Puyol will probably start at left back, with Mascherano and Pique as centre backs and Alves as right back.  It will be interesting to see if Guardiola will deploy a 3-4-3 formation or 4-3-3. Now i know some Barca fans are not enthusiastic about 3-4-3 because it leaves you open to counterattacks as proved by Valencia earlier in the season, but i like that formation because it gives you more possession in the midfield. That possession creates more goal scoring opportunities and its also the best form of protecting your back three (which can be made into four, with Busquets dropping back), due to your superiority in ball control and numbers in the middle. Bear in mind that Messi often drops deep to interchange with Fabregas (hence his goal display this season since coming from Arsenal)combined with the direct play of Alexis Sanchez who stretches defenses, you have a team that will eventually tire out Milan.
          The weak point in any formation whether a 3-4-3 or 4-3-3 (which i believe Pep will use for this game) is Mascherano in a possible duel with Ibrahimovic, without Puyol's quickness and sense of urgency i fear for Mascherano, coupled with Pique's inconsistent form that is an area Milan will look to exploit.
           It's an evenly balanced game and should be intriguing, i think Barca win it  3-2 if its an all out attacking match.

Full review of quarter finals next week after second legs decided,
Bossman.

Champions League Preview pt 1

       Finally after about two weeks, champions league football is back, we have two games in store, one that appears straight forward and another that to me is more complicated than people realize. So let me break down the match ups tomorrow as best as possible.

APOEL VS REAL MADRID

      It will be the upset of the champions league era if Apoel get a result against Madrid. This was the one team that every club wanted as a "guarantee" into the semis,and it looks like Madrid got what they wanted.   By reaching the quarter finals Apoel have shown tenacity and courage, especially in their last match against Lyon, by going on to win on penalties. They will need to be fearless and attack Madrid (which my prove suicidal) and play the "perfect" game according to their coach Ivan Jovanovic, and not give away cheap possession or free kicks against a team like Madrid that needs no encouragement to score.

     Real enter this game on the back of thumping Real Sociedad 5-1, to end a bad week that contained two consecutive draws, sending offs, media blackouts and just about everyone losing their heads in a Real shirt. They should negotiate this first leg comfortably even though Xabi Alonso will be absent due to suspension. There is a saying that the hardest games to win are the ones where everyone expects a victory, complacency  will be Madrid's biggest rival in this match, and Mourinho will have to ensure his players are focused 100% to avoid embarrassment. 

     Barring any surprises this tie could be over in this leg making the return at the Bernabeu a dead rubber.

BENFICA VS CHELSEA

     This is a tie that is more complicated than people might realize. Benfica arguably dominated against Manchester United in the group stages and saw off a very talented Zenit side in the last round. With players like Gaitan, Aimar, Cardozo, Saviola and Nolito; they have players that are technically gifted and can control   the midfield a characteristic that can be Chelsea's undoing in this first leg. 

     Frank Lampard recently said that Chelsea were not "as good as we used to be" which means that while they are still capable of glorious nights like against Napoli, they can no longer hold that level of consistency as witnessed in the matches after the European tie. The question is whether they can raise their game for Benfica; is it in them to give another performance or was the match in the last round a one-off, a reaction needed due to the Villas-Boas sacking. Their match on the weekend against Spurs again highlighted the lethargic movement in their midfield, Chelsea can no longer control games so they must find a way to nullify Benfica's attacks while still remaining potent for the ever crucial away goal. Drogba starts in attack for me no because of Torres' form this season but because the midfield is set up for him to feed off scraps and use his strength to create chances. A player like Torres flourishes best in a quick and fluid midfield, something that will need to be addressed in the summer.

 Benfica to win 2-1 with Stamford Bridge playing the all decisive match next week.

Notes:

Ranieri fired. No surprise here, doesn't make much of a difference. This season is a write off for Inter with serious rebuilding required in the summer, but with financial fair play coming it seems they will have pick up some gems from their recently crowned NextGen U-19 champs.

PlayStation players do exist, just look at the scoring records of Messi and Ronaldo.They are racking up the type of numbers you get if playing on amateur on Fifa.

Euro's are getting closer, just wanted to state that.

Goal of the week

Crouch vs Man City

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&NR=1&v=Jcjr4F-pbcA

Bossman.

     

Title Races etc

      My focus this week is in Spain with what seems to be an apparent title race back on again. This weekend Madrid drew 1-1 with Villarreal at El Madrigal in similar circumstances to the Malaga match last weekend. I always had the belief even with 10 points that Madrid would drop points, but not at home against Malaga, because of their home record and somewhat surprising against a poor Villarreal. However, with Barcelona seemingly peeking at the overused "business end" of the season(as if the rest of the season is just the recreational end) and the insatiable form of Messi at the moment,  you can help but think that some Barca fans may feel a sense of destiny.

       The situation that Madrid finds themselves in reminds me of what happened to Barca in the 06/07 season.  Madrid's "never say die" attitude created so much pressure on Barcelona to eventually capitulate in the penultimate game versus Espanyol, as Tamudo hit a stoppage time equaliser at the Nou Camp, Van Nistelrooy hit a winner at Zaragoza. If you look at the games still to play this season Madrid on paper have the harder fixtures such as Osasuna (away), Athletic Club (away), Valencia (home), Sevilla (home), Barcelona (away) and for sake of paper Atletico Madrid (away) even though Atletico have been nothing but Madrid's prison yard concubines since 99.  Now i still believe with the immense talent and insane firepower Madrid have up front, the title should be in the Bernabeu in May, however, the relentless intensity that they had for the most of the season and right after the liga clasico defeat in December is missing at a crucial time.
      Winning titles is about peaking at the right time, if i was a betting man Barcelona could very well win the title from the backdoor this year. While i don't believe in "mind games" as the media puts it, there is a reason why Guardiola has said winning this league is" impossible" and  that has coincided with six straight wins on the bounce, Barcelona are playing without pressure at the moment and Madrid, having been chasing Barcelona for the past three years, are feeling the heat of being favorites during the title run in.

Notes:
Neymar is apparently set to join Barcelona in 2013, while he is ridiculously talented i cant help feel that this is a vanity signing by Sandro Rosell, considering you already have Sanchez, Tello, Cuenca, Pedro and whoever might come of age next season, it strikes me as purely a galatico signing and not a footballing one. Maybe i just showed how naive i am.

Goal of the week
Coates vs QPR
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zj9umu0H5hI



Bossman.

Champions League Draw etc..

So the quarter final and semi final draws were made this week, and things are a lot clearer on what the final on May 19th could look like. The draw as follows:





APOEL VS REAL MADRID

      The proverbial and over used "David vs Goliath" its safe to say David will not be winning this tie. Apoel's stunning feat of knocking out Lyon will not be repeated. The problem with this fixture is that Apoel have played all their cards in the match vs Lyon and now the onus in the first leg will be to attack and get something out of Real Madrid, or the opposite might be to sit back and absorb enormous amounts of pressure, either way i fail to see Real not scoring a couple of goals to put this tie to bed. The real test for Madrid will come in the semi's with a potential meeting with Bayern.
PREDICTION: No need for one, its blatantly obvious.

BENFICA VS CHELSEA

      This match is more evenly balanced than people might think. Benfica topped the group, with albeit a poor Manchester United, even so they  have quality in players like Cardozo, Gaitan, Aimar and Nolito. They will prove a match for Chelsea, even though they heroically overcame Napoli, they still looked slow in midfield and struggled to maintain possession, a flaw that will haunt them maybe not so much against Benfica but possibly against a hypothetical meeting with Barcelona in the semis. With that said they created chances and they took them clinically and Drogba showed his Mourinho-era form by being unplayable and unsporting. What may tip this tie in Chelsea's favor is the siege mentality they have at the moment. The fall out of the Villas-Boas sacking and players accused of having too much power in the dressing room, to comments of certain players being "past it" has galvanised the squad. Some players such Lampard, Drogba, Terry, Ashley Cole etc realize that this may be their last chance to win the trophy with the big ears once and for all after coming desperately close in the past.
PREDICTION: CHELSEA (Not by much)

MARSEILLE VS BAYERN MUNICH

      Late goal specialists Marseille against Inter Milan and  Dortmund will need to play out of their skins to oust Bayern in this draw. I must admit i dont know as much as i should about Marseille in the Champions league this season although their first leg match vs Inter Milan was painful to watch. Interesting subplot is that Ribery returns home and i really like the look of Valbuena, and Andre Ayew. The absence of Steve Mananda could prove detrimental if Bayern reproduce their goal killing form that they did against Basel. Bayern have every incentive this season to reach the final and with the current form of Robben, Ribery and Gomez they will be too much of Marseille. That should lead to a historic prestigious tie vs Real Madrid in the semis.
PREDICTION: BAYERN

MILAN VS BARCELONA

     The game of the round of eight, already met in the group stages in two entertaining games, this should be equally if not better than the previous meeting. Milan were astonishing when dismantling Arsenal in the first leg and were pathetic in almost blowing a 4-0 advantage in the second leg. Manager Allegri is an astute tactician (i don't think he gets enough credit) he would learned a great deal about Barcelona in the group stage meetings.
     The question when playing Barca is whether to attack or sit deep and defend. The best way to play Barca is to attack pressure high up the pitch (especially Pique) and try and create one-on-ones with Ibrahimovic, Robinho, and Boateng. Milan would know automatically that they would not see the ball as much as they would like, but attack is the best form of defence. Sitting back against Barca would prove suicidal as they would eventually pick you off.  As for Barcelona, the chance to be the first back to back winners in the champions league era means that they will have to go the hard way in the route to Munich. With the inconsistent form of Pique this season it will be interesting to see if Guardiola deploys a 3-4-3 as he has this season or the standard 4-3-3. To render the threat of Ibrahimovic and co useless, 3-4-3 means that he will have even greater amount of possession in midfield and that will equate to more chances on goal. The form of Pedro will be worrying, although he can rely on Sanchez who has given Barca something extra this season, he is more direct and has a similar impact that Guily had in the Rijkaard days. I am not going to speak on Messi, you already know he's not human.
PREDICTION: BARCELONA

Other notes:
     Athletic Club impressive over two legs vs Manchester United then again not surprising if you know how Bielsa' teams play, i.e Chile in the last WC. Proves that La Liga is not as weak as people claim. However i wonder how long they can keep on to players like Llorente, Munian, Susaeta and Herrera.

EL Clasico UCL final is very possible, don't know if i can handle another high pressure nerve racking match with Real Madrid, last year's four clasico's in April was heart attack inducing.

Euro's are getting closer, just wanted to say that.
On a somber note, strength for Abidal and Muamba, football is more than the club you support.
 Till next week.
Bossman.

The Torres Solution

    Seven months in and twenty two games played , Fernando Torres has three goals and forty five shots for Chelsea this season. For a man worth 50 million pounds this makes dismal reading , forget the price tag for any striker worth his salt or trade it's a humiliating and humbling stat. There is the idea that his goal drought is mental, an idea that i subscribe to, several games this season his movement and assists have been phenomenal, however when he does get into scoring positions he seems to hesitate for that fraction of a second, a trait that he never had early in his Liverpool days or when he burst into the scene for Atletico Madrid.

     So here is my remedy to unleash the Torres of 2007/2008. Firstly the current midfield set up at Chelsea lacks dynamism, there is seldom movement and quickness. Only Mata provides that quickness of thought and movement and he is often played out of position out wide when his best position is in the hole behind the striker. To get the best out of Torres the midfield must be quick, fluid in terms of possession so that the chance creation is always constant. At the moment the midfield is lethargic and the duo of Lampard (age) Essien(injuries) is not the same anymore.Oriol Romeu as a deep lying playmaker like Xabi Alonso or Busquets is needed to keep posession. A formation of 4-1-3-2 will in my opinion ensure constant movement of the ball. 

       What Villas-Boas wanted was a high pressing, high defensive line to make the midfield smaller and to decrease the distance from the center circle to the opposing goal. That would mean a team that creates lots of chances for its strikers a set up that i believe would have benefited Torres, the only  problem is that the personnel was missing. For that strategy to work you need ball playing defenders, like Pique for example (a reason that Cahill was signed) and they must be quick so that they can recover balls played behind them (something that John Terry is not). 

       The common saying that form is temporary and class is permanent is being tested strenuously by Torres' lack of goals but the supporting cast has to change to fulfil that often used term.